The S&P 500 index edges to within 1.05 points of its previous 9/21/2018 intra-day high, as the ISM index comes in higher than expected and private payrolls surge. At the same time, troubling signs emerge from (i) the lack of breadth of bull market participation; (ii) falling home mortgage demand; and most notably, (iii) soaring interest rates, with the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries spiking from 3.05% yesterday to 3.15% today.

CNBC: “The stock market is trading at a record, but a look under the hood shows some troubling signs”

Investors look at the number of 52-week highs and lows made by stocks as a sign of market participation. In other words, more stocks making 52-week highs signals broad participation in an uptrend. Meanwhile, fewer 52-week highs during an uptrend suggest limited participation.

CNBC: “‘Rip-roaring hot’ jobs market sees private payrolls surge by 230,000, highest since February”
CNBC: “ISM non-manufacturing index hits 61.6 in September, vs. 58 estimate”
CNBC: “Weekly mortgage applications flatline, along with interest rates”
CNBC: “Rates are surging with 10-year, 30-year Treasury yields touching multiyear highs”
CNBC: “Recession risk is ‘below average’ for the next three years, Goldman says“